Hypothesis to signal
Explain why a signal might exist, where it might fail, and what information is available at the time. Then define the rule.
Read the research framework ↗ AURENSO / QUANTITATIVE INTELLIGENCEResearch that
Research that
holds up.
Quantitative discipline. AI-assisted inquiry.
Turn an idea into a testable hypothesis, connect signals with risk, and let the evidence shape your conviction.
Open methods · Reproducible experiments · Risk first
STRATEGY EXPLORERSYNTHETIC DATA
Observe the signal. Understand the cost.Trend strategy vs. synthetic benchmark
Simulated return−1.35%
Maximum drawdown−6.87%
Annualized volatility5.22%
Strategy Benchmark252 trading sessions
A calculated teaching example, not actual market performance.
01 / THE METHODA better question.
A better question.
Before a bigger model.
AI expands the space of questions. Quantitative methods put those questions to the test. We connect both in a research process with clear assumptions and boundaries.
Model to evidence
Use time-based validation, fair benchmarks, and sensitivity checks. Keep failed experiments so the process stays honest.
Explore AI-assisted research ↗Return to risk
Consider drawdown, turnover, trading friction, and position limits together. A result means more when its cost is visible.
Understand the risk framework ↗02 / YOUR RESEARCH BENCHTurn “what if”
Turn “what if”
into an experiment.
Switch strategies. Adjust exposure and trading costs. Every parameter changes the calculation, and every result can be exported for review.
Start an experiment ↗A REPEATABLE LOOP
Ask→Test→Review
signal(t−1) × position(t) − trading cost
Lagged information. Explicit turnover costs.03 / FIELD NOTESLeave a trail
Read all field notes ↗Leave a trail
of better thinking.
HYPOTHESIS → EVIDENCE
METHOD / 3 MIN READA good-looking curve is only the beginning.
Reproducibility, costs, and validation belong before conviction.
Read the note ↗HUMAN × MACHINE
AI RESEARCH / 3 MIN READLet AI accelerate inquiry, not replace judgment.
Give models a clear role, from organizing evidence to finding counterexamples.
Read the note ↗RISK IS A DESIGN CHOICE
RISK / 3 MIN READDefine what you can bear before chasing returns.
Use drawdown budgets, position limits, and stress scenarios to understand the boundary.
Read the note ↗